The 2025 Bihar election delivered a decisive mandate for the BJP-JDU alliance, with the ruling bloc racing ahead of the Mahagathbandhan by over 160 seats. At the core of this unprecedented sweep lies a powerful consolidation of Extremely Backward Classes, Other Backward Classes, Scheduled Castes, and Scheduled Tribes. Exit polls had indicated growing support for the NDA among these communities, and the final results affirmed that trend with remarkable clarity. Notably, the Kurmi and Koeri communities, traditionally aligned with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, backed the NDA in large numbers, while the Nishad and Kushwaha communities also shifted significantly. The Paswan community delivered a standout boost, reflected in the strong performance of Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which is on track to win 22 of the 28 seats it contested.
A surprising and highly consequential shift came from the Muslim and Yadav vote base. Long considered the backbone of the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, this group appeared to fragment. Early assessments suggest that more than 65 per cent of Muslim and Yadav voters extended support to the NDA, marking one of the most dramatic political realignments in recent Bihar history. This shift was evident in Raghopur, the Yadav political stronghold that has historically supported the Lalu-Rabri-Tejashwi family. The close contest there signaled deeper currents influencing voter sentiment across the state.
Caste has always been a defining force in Bihar’s elections, and the October 2023 caste survey reinforced its centrality by revealing that over 85 per cent of residents belong to BC, EBC, SC, or ST communities. The NDA’s strong push among these groups played a key role in the landslide. The BJP-JDU alliance secured overwhelming support from EBCs and OBCs, surpassing even the optimistic exit poll numbers. Scheduled Caste voters, too, leaned heavily towards the NDA, which secured nearly three-quarters of their votes.
Candidate selection reflected a clear focus on caste arithmetic, with both alliances distributing tickets according to demographic strength. Yet the Mahagathbandhan’s strategy of emphasizing the Yadav vote base did not generate the expected consolidation, especially in districts with mixed caste compositions. Meanwhile, the NDA’s broad-based strategy, combined with the appeal of Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, effectively unified key communities across regions. As the counting concluded, the numbers told a compelling story: Bihar’s political landscape has undergone a sweeping transformation driven by strategic caste alignments, unexpected voter shifts, and a recalibration of long-standing loyalties.
