Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is positioned to advance crucial trade negotiations with the United States after securing a decisive electoral victory in Bihar, a development that analysts say could provide New Delhi with the political space needed to offer farm-related concessions long sought by Washington. The National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, appeared headed for an overwhelming win as early trends from the Election Commission showed the coalition leading in nearly 200 out of 243 seats. The opposition trailed significantly, holding leads in fewer than 30 constituencies.
Bihar, India’s third most populous state, holds strategic importance in agricultural policymaking due to its large corn production and the influence of its farming communities. A strong mandate from the state is expected to bolster the Modi government’s confidence in concluding a trade agreement with the United States, one that has been under negotiation for several years. Analysts say the agreement is likely to include increased purchases of American agricultural products, particularly corn. However, they emphasise that the government will carefully position any such move to avoid signalling a retreat from its public commitment to protecting domestic farmers.
India’s exports to the United States currently face tariffs as high as 50 percent. Both countries have been attempting to forge a pact that they describe as a fair trade deal, but talks have repeatedly stalled. The negotiations took a sharper turn in September after U.S. President Donald Trump criticised the trade relationship, calling it one-sided. Senior U.S. officials echoed this sentiment, expressing frustration over India’s reluctance to import American farm goods, including corn.
During Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s visit to Washington later that month, Indian officials signalled openness to new proposals, including discussions on importing U.S. corn for ethanol production. Reports suggest that New Delhi has since conveyed willingness to consider some concessions but wants to wait for clarity after the Bihar elections before finalising any commitments.
Despite the renewed diplomatic momentum, major challenges remain. India maintains a ban on genetically modified crop imports, and an estimated 94 percent of U.S. corn is genetically modified. This regulatory barrier, combined with India’s tariff structure—which imposes a 15 percent duty on corn imports up to 500,000 metric tonnes, rising steeply to 50 percent thereafter—creates significant obstacles for any expansion of U.S. corn sales to the country. Analysts warn that easing these restrictions risks triggering concerns among Indian farmers about market dumping, particularly at a time when agricultural sensitivities remain high.
Reports in recent months indicate that proposals to import maize have already stirred unease in farming communities. However, experts say the strong electoral performance of the NDA in Bihar will give the government room to negotiate regulated imports, particularly for sectors such as poultry feed, which depend heavily on maize. Agricultural leaders note that while New Delhi may be willing to explore limited maize imports, it is unlikely to approve genetically modified varieties due to persistent farmer opposition.
Looking ahead, several major state elections are set to take place next year in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, followed by Uttar Pradesh in 2027. Each of these states has influential agricultural lobbies whose support remains vital for any political coalition. This electoral calendar further complicates India’s ability to make sweeping concessions on farm policy, even as it seeks to strengthen strategic cooperation with the United States.
Analysts say the Modi government’s challenge will be to present itself as supportive of farmers while simultaneously addressing U.S. expectations for expanded agricultural market access. Balancing these objectives will shape the trajectory of bilateral trade talks in the months ahead, with the Bihar mandate providing the first significant opening for progress.
