Voting for by-elections to five assembly seats across Punjab, West Bengal, Gujarat, and Kerala began on June 19, setting the stage for high-stakes political showdowns. Though the number of seats is limited, the contests are expected to reflect broader voter sentiment and alliance cohesion ahead of several key state elections in 2026.
In Punjab, the Ludhiana West seat vacated after the death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Singh Gogi is witnessing a multi-cornered contest. AAP has fielded Rajya Sabha MP Sanjeev Arora to retain its influence in the urban constituency. He is up against Congress’s Bharat Bhushan Ashu, BJP’s Jiwan Gupta, and Parupkar Singh Ghumman from the Shiromani Akali Dal. Despite AAP and Congress fighting the Lok Sabha polls together as part of the INDIA bloc, they are in direct competition here. A win for Arora could potentially affect AAP’s Rajya Sabha strategy, with speculation swirling about the party's intent to accommodate key figures like Arvind Kejriwal or Manish Sisodia.
In West Bengal, the Kaliganj bypoll is being seen as a litmus test for TMC’s grassroots hold, especially among women and minority voters. TMC has fielded Alifa Ahmed, daughter of late MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed. The BJP has named Ashish Ghosh, while the Congress-Left alliance is backing Kabil Uddin Sheikh. With the 2026 assembly elections approaching and controversies like the teacher recruitment scam fresh in voters' minds, Kaliganj is being closely monitored as a symbol of TMC's standing in rural Bengal.
Gujarat presents triangular contests in both Kadi and Visavadar. In Kadi, the seat fell vacant after BJP MLA Karsanbhai Solanki's death. BJP’s Rajendra Chavda faces Congress’s Ramesh Chavda and AAP’s Jagdish Chavda. The bypoll could indicate the current mood of Dalit voters. In Visavadar, the dynamics have shifted since Bhayani Bhupendrabhai quit AAP and joined BJP. The BJP has now fielded Kirit Patel against Congress’s Nitin Ranpariya and AAP’s Gopal Italia, making it a crucial three-way battle shaped by local influence and party-switching.
In Kerala, Nilambur is witnessing a complex multi-cornered race. The seat was vacated by P.V. Anvar, who shifted political affiliations multiple times and is now contesting as an Independent. The Congress has nominated Aryadan Shoukath, while the Left has named M. Swaraj. Nilambur, under the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat held by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, has become a prestige contest for both the ruling LDF and the Congress-led UDF. Anvar’s return as an Independent has only added to the unpredictability of the contest.
These bypolls, though localized, are being viewed as a broader referendum on the performance and unity of national alliances the BJP-led NDA and the opposition INDIA bloc. Results from these contests could influence party strategies in the lead-up to the 2026 assembly elections and the evolving dynamics of state-level politics. Counting for all five seats will take place on June 23.
