As the 2025 Bihar elections approach, the debate over whether AIMIM should join the RJD-led Grand Alliance has sparked heated political discussions. AIMIM’s Bihar chief Akhtarul Iman created a buzz by reaching Lalu Prasad Yadav’s residence with drumbeaters and declaring the party’s willingness to join the Opposition bloc. AIMIM even offered to contest only six seats in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region without demanding ministerial positions if the alliance comes to power.
Despite this olive branch, Tejashwi Yadav and senior RJD leaders remain reluctant. Their reasoning is twofold: AIMIM appeals to the same Muslim voter base that RJD has traditionally counted on, and any alliance could encourage AIMIM to demand seats in other Muslim-majority regions like Darbhanga and Madhubani in future polls. RJD leaders point out that four of the five AIMIM MLAs elected in 2020 were originally disgruntled RJD members who returned after victory, highlighting the overlap in voter base and party loyalty.
The Seemanchal belt, comprising Purnia, Katihar, Araria, and Kishanganj, has nearly 24 Assembly seats and a Muslim population ranging from 38 to 68 percent. In 2020, AIMIM won five seats here, cutting into Mahagathbandhan’s traditional stronghold. While AIMIM’s entry could prevent anti-NDA vote division, it also risks intensifying BJP’s polarisation strategy.
RJD fears that AIMIM’s presence will allow the BJP to frame the Bihar election as a Hindu versus Muslim battle, consolidating Hindu votes in its favor across the state. While smaller parties like Pashupati Paras’ RLJP and JMM have been welcomed into the bloc despite minimal influence, AIMIM is being kept out due to its stronger base and the threat of communal narrative escalation.
The dilemma remains whether RJD’s defensive strategy will safeguard its broader voter base or inadvertently weaken the Grand Alliance by repeating the 2020 scenario, where NDA bagged 12 of the 24 Seemanchal seats, Mahagathbandhan managed only seven, and AIMIM claimed five.
