AUSTIN, Texas — Primary elections across Texas are set for Tuesday, and newly released polling suggests several high-profile contests could extend into runoff elections as candidates vie for their party nominations in key statewide races.

According to data from the Texas Politics Project, the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate remains highly competitive. The poll indicates that Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow lead with 36% support among likely Republican primary voters, followed closely by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 34%. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt trails with 26%, positioning the race within striking distance of a potential runoff if no candidate secures a majority.

The survey highlights notable divisions within ideological factions of the Republican electorate. Among voters identifying as “extremely conservative,” Paxton leads with 41%, compared to Hunt at 30% and Cornyn at 27%. The contest tightens among those who describe themselves as “somewhat conservative,” where Paxton receives 36%, Cornyn 35%, and Hunt 27%. Cornyn performs strongest among voters who “lean conservative,” earning 50% support in that group, while Paxton garners 33% and Hunt 17%.

Favorability ratings among Republican voters show Paxton viewed positively by 52% of respondents, with Cornyn close behind at 50%. Hunt’s favorability stands at 39%, though nearly one-third of those surveyed indicated they were unfamiliar with him or had no opinion. By comparison, only about 10% to 11% of voters expressed uncertainty regarding Paxton or Cornyn.

On the Democratic side of the Senate race, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett commands majority support among likely primary voters, with 56% backing her candidacy. State Rep. James Talarico follows with 44%. Crockett’s favorability rating among Democrats stands at 71%, compared to 59% for Talarico. However, 36% of Democratic respondents reported a neutral or no opinion of Talarico, compared with 21% for Crockett. Pollsters noted that the survey was conducted before a recent national television appearance by Talarico, which may influence future recognition and polling trends.

Another closely watched contest is the Republican primary for attorney general, as Paxton’s Senate bid leaves the seat open. The race appears headed toward a runoff, with U.S. Rep. Chip Roy polling at 40% and state Sen. Mayes Middleton at 38%. State Sen. Joan Huffman registers 9%, while former Assistant U.S. Attorney General Aaron Reitz receives 5%. An additional 8% of respondents indicated a preference for another candidate.

In the Democratic attorney general primary, Joe Jaworski leads with 52% support, followed by state Sen. Nathan Johnson at 28% and candidate Tony Box at 10%.

With multiple races showing fragmented support and no clear majority leaders, the Texas primary election is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent cycles. Should no candidate surpass the 50% threshold, runoff elections would determine the final nominees, setting the stage for closely contested general election campaigns in November.