A poll of exit polls for the 2026 assembly elections across key states indicates a mixed political landscape, with different parties gaining ground in different regions. While the Bharatiya Janata Party is projected to dominate Assam, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam is expected to retain power in Tamil Nadu, and the Indian National Congress-led UDF is likely to return in Kerala.
In Tamil Nadu, exit polls suggest that Chief Minister M. K. Stalin is on track to secure another term, with the DMK projected to win around 130 seats in the 234-member assembly. However, the entry of actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam has significantly altered the political dynamics. The party is expected to win around 31 seats, impacting both DMK and AIADMK vote banks. One pollster, Axis My India, has even projected a much higher tally for Vijay’s party, making it a major disruptor in the state.
In Kerala, a shift in power is likely after a decade, with the Congress-led UDF projected to secure around 77 seats. The ruling Left Front under Pinarayi Vijayan is expected to fall short with around 55 seats. If these projections hold, it would mark a significant comeback for the Congress in a state where the Left has maintained strong influence for years.
In Assam, exit polls are largely unanimous in predicting a comfortable victory for the BJP under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The party is projected to win around 88 seats in the 126-member assembly, indicating a third consecutive term. The Congress, led by Gaurav Gogoi in the state, is expected to secure a significantly lower seat count.
West Bengal, however, remains the most closely contested state. Exit polls are divided, with some predicting a breakthrough for the BJP with 146–175 seats, while others foresee another victory for All India Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee, projecting between 177 and over 200 seats. The state continues to be a high-stakes battleground, with both parties investing heavily in campaigns. With results set to be announced on May 4, the final outcome will determine whether these projections translate into actual electoral victories across these crucial states.
