Legendary investor Ray Dalio has cautioned that the global economy is approaching a dangerous tipping point, warning that mounting geopolitical frictions and unstable financial markets could trigger what he describes as a “capital war,” in which nations weaponize money, trade, and investment flows to exert influence over one another.
Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Dalio said the international system is not yet in such a conflict but is “on the brink,” with conditions that could quickly escalate. He described capital war as a scenario where governments restrict access to markets, impose sanctions, enforce capital controls, or use debt holdings and trade leverage to pressure rivals. According to Dalio, rising mistrust among major economies is increasing the likelihood of these tools being deployed more aggressively.
He pointed to growing tensions between the United States and its allies and competitors as a key source of concern. Discussions surrounding Washington’s interest in Greenland, a Danish territory, as well as broader disagreements over trade and security policy, have unsettled investors. Dalio said some European holders of U.S.-denominated assets fear potential sanctions or restrictions, while American policymakers may worry about losing reliable foreign buyers for government debt.
European investors have played a significant role in financing U.S. borrowing needs, accounting for a large share of foreign purchases of Treasurys in recent months. Any disruption to those flows could amplify volatility in global markets and increase funding pressures. Dalio noted that “capital, money, matters,” emphasizing that financial interdependence has become both a strength and a vulnerability for the global system.
Since returning to office, President Donald Trump has introduced and, at times, rolled back punitive tariffs targeting several trading partners. Those policy shifts have added to market swings and uncertainty. Dalio said similar patterns in the past have often preceded broader economic confrontations, with governments imposing foreign exchange restrictions and tightening controls to protect domestic interests.
Drawing parallels with history, he referenced periods leading up to major conflicts, when sanctions and trade barriers intensified rivalries between nations. He suggested that today’s environment could produce comparable strains, particularly in relations between the United States and China, or between the United States and Europe, where trade deficits and capital imbalances remain sensitive issues.
Against this backdrop, Dalio reiterated his long-standing view that gold remains an effective hedge during periods of stress. Although prices have fluctuated recently, he said the precious metal continues to serve as a reliable diversifier for portfolios. Rather than focusing on short-term movements, he advised investors, central banks, and sovereign wealth funds to maintain a steady allocation to gold as protection against systemic risk.
Ultimately, Dalio urged a disciplined approach to investing, stressing that diversification across assets and regions is the best defense in an increasingly uncertain economic landscape.
