In the run-up to the Bihar Assembly election results, 11 exit polls have given the NDA a clear majority, while Axis My India stands apart by predicting a much closer contest. According to its survey, the NDA may win between 121 and 140 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 98 to 118, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party between zero and two. With the majority mark set at 122, this projection puts the NDA on the edge of a tight race.

Which aggregates multiple surveys, suggests the NDA will win around 146 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 92, and the Jan Suraaj Party only one. However, the Axis My India poll paints a different picture, indicating that the ruling alliance’s vote share could be 43%, just two percentage points ahead of the Mahagathbandhan’s 41%. If accurate, these figures could lead to a nail-biting finish when counting begins on Friday.

While Axis My India’s numbers suggest uncertainty, other pollsters remain confident of an NDA sweep. Vote Vibe projects 125–145 seats for the NDA, while CNX predicts a commanding 150–170 seats. If these predictions hold, it would mark a significant victory for the alliance and a setback for the Mahagathbandhan, which may secure only 70–90 seats.

Despite potential losses, the RJD is expected to remain the single-largest party, with projections of 67–76 seats, while the JDU may improve to 56–62 from its 2020 tally of 43. The BJP, however, could see a reduction from 74 seats in the previous election to 50–56 this year. The Congress is expected to secure 17–21 seats. While most exit polls point toward an NDA-led government, political watchers caution that exit polls often miss the mark, leaving room for surprises when the actual results are declared.