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Barry Callebaut cuts profit outlook amid cocoa price drop and supply risks

Barry Callebaut cuts profit outlook amid cocoa price drop and supply risks
Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest chocolate producer, announced on Thursday, April 16, 2026, that it has lowered its operating profit forecast for the 2025–2026 fiscal year, citing falling cocoa prices, industry overcapacity, and potential supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions involving Iran.

The Zurich-based company now expects earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to decline by a mid-teens percentage, marking a significant downgrade from projections issued three months earlier, when it anticipated a return to growth. The revised outlook reflects a rapidly shifting commodities environment and broader pressures across the global chocolate industry.

Chief Executive Officer Hein Schumacher, who assumed the role in late January 2026, acknowledged the company’s strong market position but warned of a turbulent period ahead. He noted that cocoa bean prices declined during the first half of the fiscal year, which supported cash flow and could encourage future market momentum. However, the pace of the price drop, combined with excess production capacity and lower sales volumes, weighed on profitability.

Schumacher said supply disruptions tied to geopolitical developments, including tensions affecting key shipping routes, have further complicated the outlook. While stronger harvests compared to recent years have helped stabilize cocoa costs, logistical challenges and uncertainty continue to impact the market.

Shares of the company fell sharply following the announcement, dropping as much as 17% during trading on Thursday, April 16, 2026. By approximately 2:30 p.m. London time (9:30 a.m. Eastern Time in the United States), the stock remained down about 15.8%, reflecting investor concern over the revised forecast

Cocoa prices, a key driver of the company’s performance, have declined significantly in recent months. After reaching elevated levels in prior years, prices have fallen more than 40% since the start of 2026 and over 50% year-over-year, according to market data. Despite a modest rebound in the past week, the broader trend underscores ongoing volatility in global commodities markets.

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