US international student enrollment could fall 9.5% in Fall 2026, with NAFSA and JB International projecting up to 111,000 fewer students. Visa delays, policy changes and graduate-level declines could cut $3.4 billion in spending and affect 39,000 U.S. jobs.
U.S. colleges and universities could enroll up to 111,000 fewer international students in Fall 2026, according to preliminary projections released August 11, 2026, by NAFSA and JB International. The model estimates a 9.5% overall decline, with the upper-range scenario placing enrollment at 1,056,884, versus a projected 1,168,602 in 2025-26.
Economic losses may reach $3.4 billion
Under that scenario, international students would contribute about $38.37 billion to the U.S. economy in 2026-27, down from a projected $41.77 billion in 2025-26. NAFSA estimates up to $3.4 billion in lost direct economic contributions and up to 39,000 fewer U.S. jobs supported. Graduate enrollment declines are expected to drive much of the loss.
Visa delays and new rules add pressure
NAFSA cited declining applications, limited visa appointments and immigration-policy changes. It also pointed to State Department priority processing for 2026 FIFA World Cup ticket holders during part of the traditional May-to-August peak season for student and exchange-visitor visas.
A Department of Homeland Security final rule published July 17, 2026, is scheduled to take effect September 15, 2026. It replaces “duration of status” for F, J and I nonimmigrants with fixed admission periods and extension procedures. The Federal Register says the effective date could change following congressional review.
India remains central to enrollment trends
India remained the largest source of international students in the United States in 2024-25, with 363,019 students, according to Open Doors 2025. NAFSA also reported limited or delayed visa appointments affecting students in India and China.
NAFSA is urging federal officials to prioritize student visa processing and preserve Optional Practical Training for F-1 students. Because the enrollment analysis is preliminary, actual Fall 2026 totals may differ; IIE’s later Fall 2026 snapshot is expected to provide more definitive data.
