The Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ended without any clear resolution for the Ukraine war, leaving two potential futures for how Europe's biggest war since 1945 might conclude. While the summit didn’t provide clarity, two distinct outcomes have emerged, both altering the fate of Ukraine in significant ways.

Scenario One: Partition with Protection
Ukraine might end up as a smaller but sovereign nation, with the West offering protection. Despite Kyiv's efforts, the war has reached a stalemate where regaining all lost territory seems impossible. President Zelensky has hinted at the possibility of negotiating over territory, securing Ukraine’s sovereignty with support from Europe and the United States. However, Ukraine may still be forced to accept Moscow's control over a portion of its land, a compromise that could leave the country vulnerable.

Scenario Two: Partition with Subordination
A more alarming future involves political submission to Russia. Moscow has demanded significant restrictions on Ukraine’s military, changes to its constitution, and control over its leadership. If Ukraine accepts such conditions, it risks becoming a protectorate under Russian influence, losing its independence and democratic ambitions. This scenario would represent a profound loss for Ukraine, both territorially and politically.

What Does Putin Want?
Putin has rejected calls for a ceasefire, making it clear that he intends to pursue Moscow’s broader goals until achieved. His statement about Ukraine’s future highlights Russia’s insistence on addressing its concerns and restoring a balance of security in Europe. However, past peace efforts have shown that promises of security guarantees for Ukraine are highly contested, leaving the country’s future uncertain.